All of these estimates still rely on data being available, or someone going and collecting it before antibodies and local memories wane. Globally, there will have been numerous local tragedies going unreported. — Adam Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
All of these estimates still rely on data being available, or someone going and collecting it before antibodies and local memories wane. Globally, there will have been numerous local tragedies going unreported. — Adam Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Global Covid Death Toll Surpasses 5 Million, but Full Count Is Higher
The coronavirus is responsible for more than five million confirmed deaths around the world as of Monday, according to data from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. Such a loss would wipe out almost the entire population of Melbourne, Australia, or most of the nation of Singapore.

Experts say that five million is an undercount. Many countries are unable to accurately record the number of people who have died from Covid-19, like India and African nations; experts have questioned the veracity of data from other countries, like Russia.

“All of these estimates still rely on data being available, or someone going and collecting it before antibodies and local memories wane,” said Adam Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who mathematically analyzes infectious disease outbreaks. “Globally, there will have been numerous local tragedies going unreported.”

The real number of people lost to Covid-19 could be underestimated by “a multiple of two to 10” in some nations, said Denis Nash, an epidemiologist at the City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy. Overall, he said, the true global toll could be as high as twice the reported figure (not up to 10 times, as an earlier version of this item incorrectly implied).


The pace of confirmed deaths seems to have slowed slightly since the world reached four million in early July, despite the rapid spread of the Delta variant since then — a sign that the spread of vaccines could be having an impact, at least in some parts of the world. It took nine months for the virus to kill one million people, three and a half more to reach two million, another three to claim three million and about two and a half to exceed four million.

The United States leads all other countries, with more than 745,000 deaths confirmed in total. The nations with the highest reported death tolls after the United States are, in order, Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia.

... The 20 countries that have recorded the most reported deaths per capita in recent weeks are mostly in Eastern Europe and the Caribbean, and most of them have vaccinated far less than half of their populations.

... Dr. Kucharski said that the actual number of dead would not be known for a long time.

“People need to be aware that it may take years to truly understand the toll of Covid-19,” he said.
Read the full article: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/01/world/5-million-covid-deaths.html