We find there's a roughly one in three chance that we'll stay under 2 degrees Celsius. But even with increased ambition, we're still far away from getting down to 1.5 degrees in this century. — Yang Ou, a postdoctoral researcher at the Joint Global Change Research Institute
We find there's a roughly one in three chance that we'll stay under 2 degrees Celsius. But even with increased ambition, we're still far away from getting down to 1.5 degrees in this century. — Yang Ou, a postdoctoral researcher at the Joint Global Change Research Institute
New climate pledges, if fulfilled, now significantly more likely to prevent worst of global warming
"We are so much closer to getting to the 2-degree goal than six years ago when the Paris Agreement was first signed," said corresponding author Haewon McJeon, a research scientist at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. "The wave of strengthened climate pledges and net-zero targets significantly increased our chance of staying under 2 degrees Celsius. And we practically ruled out the possibility of the worst climate outcomes of 4 degrees or higher."

But making the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit more likely will take more ambition, cautioned lead author Yang Ou, a postdoctoral researcher at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between PNNL and the University of Maryland.

"We find there's a roughly one in three chance that we'll stay under 2 degrees Celsius," said Ou. "But even with increased ambition, we're still far away from getting down to 1.5 degrees in this century."


The researchers used an open-source model called the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to simulate a spectrum of emissions scenarios. They then evaluated the probabilistic temperature outcomes for those scenarios.

At one end of the spectrum is a hypothetical future in which current climate mitigation measures and policies remain largely the same through 2100. At the other, nations commit to more ambitious targets for limiting emissions and increasing the global decarbonization rate. Such modeling illustrates the range of climate outcomes that lie beyond different courses of action.
Read the full article: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/11/211104162551.htm